There are three serious candidates running for mayor of New York City, in an election to be decided next month: Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, and Curtis Sliwa. Mamdani is the Democratic nominee, Sliwa is the Republican nominee, and Cuomo, the disgraced former governor of New York, is campaigning as an independent after losing the Democratic primary by thirteen points. It’s important to keep in mind how unprecedented this is; it’s almost unheard of for a candidate who so thoroughly lost a contest for their party’s nomination to keep battling on into the general election. Mario Cuomo, Andrew’s father, fought Ed Koch in the 1977 general election after losing that primary, but the margin had been razor-thin, Koch winning about twenty percent to Mario Cuomo’s nineteen. Mamdani throttled Cuomo. But he’s a 33-year-old Muslim socialist and a political outsider. Cuomo was never going to surrender, and he’s at least been able to keep a portion of the Democratic establishment on the sidelines. Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have yet to endorse Mamdani, if they’ve also steered clear of Cuomo.
Just about every independent poll has shown Mamdani with just under fifty percent, leading Cuomo, Sliwa, and the man who was in the mayoral race until the end of last month, Eric Adams. Adams’ dropping out, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll, seemed to benefit Cuomo quite a bit. He leapt ten points, notching thirty-three percent and taking up all of Adams’ vote. Cuomo’s campaign, understandably, crowed about this. The catch is that Adams, the beleaguered one-term mayor who is no longer campaigning, will stay on the ballot. Some share of general election voters may still choose him. Cuomo believes he is in striking distance of Mamdani, and he can erode Sliwa’s support enough to climb into a strong second and eventually vault past the socialist. Mamdani, after all, did this to Cuomo in the primary.
Does Cuomo have a chance? What does he need to do to win? Should Mamdani be worried? Should the anti-Mamdani forces start to get more confident?