Circling the Drain

The Eric Adams mayoralty teeters

There has been no New York mayor in the last half century like Eric Adams. No one this flamboyant, this brazen, this imperiled, and this unpopular. Last week, federal agents searched the homes of multiple senior officials in his administration, including Police Commissioner Edward Caban and Deputy Mayors Sheena Wright and Philip Banks. Investigators also seized the phone of senior Adams adviser Tim Pearson. Caban is expected to resign, which would mean, in the span of three years, Adams will have appointed three different police commissioners.

There are, at the minimum, three federal probes into Adams and his administration. One is examining whether Adams and his campaign conspired with the government of Turkey. Another is focused on top City Hall officials, and the third includes Caban, his brother and other police officials. The IRS is also involved in that investigation, according to reports, as it centers on a nightclub security business owned by the commissioner’s twin brother, James Caban, a former police officer who was fired from the department in 2001. The theme, in most of these probes, seems to be petty bribery and graft.

No charges have been filed and it’s not clear Adams himself will be indicted. Adams’ predecessor, Bill de Blasio, was investigated as well, and indictments never came. De Blasio didn’t face down this many probes, however, and his administration was staffed with more qualified and competent policy hands. Adams has been a fast-and-loose operator since his days in the State Senate and it’s possible, in the final months of 2024, he has beaten his waxen wings too close to sunlight. We will know soon. Historically, federal prosecutors don’t like to hand down local indictments close to an election, and Adams is slated to seek re-election in the June 2025 Democratic primary. Historically, the sheer number of leaks to the media from the FBI—this is a practice I find ethically dubious—is an indication that a case is getting built and it’s near its conclusion. There’s an argument to be made the feds could believe they have a balky case and want to bloody up Adams in the public eye ahead of a trial.

It’s also plausible Adams, who had the lowest approval rating of any New York mayor in Quinnipiac University’s polling history, has inculcated a culture of corruption at City Hall and the bill, as the old cliche goes, is coming due. If it does, Adams is finished.

Unlike Donald J. Trump, Eric L. Adams cannot survive an indictment. Not of himself, and not of those closest to him. If the investigations successfully penetrate his inner ring, he will not be mayor on January 1, 2026.