If Zohran Wins

What may come next

There is a chance, later today, Zohran Mamdani will be well on his way to winning the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. Even for someone like me who has known Mamdani for seven years, this is a striking sentence to write. Once polling at close to zero percent, Mamdani, Obama-like, has rocketed to the top of the pack, and could topple Andrew Cuomo in the primary. Since New York has ranked-choice voting primaries, the full results won’t be known until July 1, when the Board of Elections performs the tabulations. But Election Night can be telling. If Mamdani and Cuomo are within five points, that’s lousy news for the ex-governor. If Mamdani finishes ahead of Cuomo tonight, the race is over. Conversely, if Cuomo can lead by ten points or more—where he was polling until very recently—the primary is his.

Let’s jump forward to July and imagine Mamdani has triumphed. He is the Democratic nominee for mayor. The new city has beaten the old. The counterculture has won. What happens now? Is Mamdani guaranteed a victory in the general election? And what awaits him if he actually becomes mayor?