Is Eric Adams Free?

Donald Trump might deliver

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Eric Adams, the mayor of New York City, was indicted on federal corruption charges in September. This was not very surprising. Corruption clouds have hovered over Adams for much of his political career. His tenure as mayor has been little more than a series of scandals and governing failures. His approval ratings have steadily dropped and he is, arguably, the most unpopular New York mayor in the last half century. This year, he is running for re-election, and it’s difficult to see how he doesn’t become the first mayor in thirty years to lose his bid for a second term.

But there is hope for Adams—President Donald Trump. For many months, it became clear that the moderate Democrat, who had spent several years warring with the Biden administration over the migrant influx into New York City, was courting Trump, aiming to be pardoned once Biden left office. Give Adams his due: it was a winning strategy. Trump loves sycophancy, and Adams offered plenty of it. Adams knows that complaining about the rogue prosecutors in the Biden Justice Department is the way to Trump’s heart. And Adams, a fellow Queens native, isn’t so unlike Trump—this might help most of all. They are two incendiary, chameleonic bomb-throwers, obsessed with Big City glitz and indifferent to reality.

Most watchers of New York politics, myself included, expected Trump to pardon Adams. It made too much sense. Adams would get his freedom and Trump would have a Black Democrat who could fast transition to MAGA attack dog, thrilling Fox audiences coast to coast. It wasn’t hard to see Adams, after City Hall, hitting the Republican podcast circuit. The path that Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. already blazed would be his to follow.

This might still happen. But it appears Trump might have done Adams even better than a pardon: his Justice Department is reportedly exploring dropping the corruption charges altogether. Adams would be free and Trump wouldn’t even have to pardon a Democrat. Everyone wins. Adams can even dream of winning the Democratic primary in June and staying mayor for another four years. It should be said that if any of the local district attorneys, like Alvin Bragg in Manhattan, want to indict Adams, Trump can’t stop them. State crimes are beyond his purview. Adams has four years, at least, to be safe from the feds, but local prosecutors are another matter.

If the charges are dropped, can Adams prevail in the Democratic primary? I remain skeptical. Getting to 50 percent in a ranked-choice voting election is very challenging for polarizing candidates and Adams, at the peak of his powers, barely did it in 2021. His coalition is much smaller today. He still has support in working class neighborhoods and business elites might view him as the best bet against the rise of a left-wing mayor. But it hard to see how he becomes popular enough to beat back a crowded field.

There is one potential candidate who is probably not pleased that Adams can escape without a corruption trial or a pardon. Andrew Cuomo, the disgraced former governor, is looming over the race as the polling leader. He would be the unquestioned frontrunner, even with his vulnerabilities. Part of Cuomo’s calculus is that Adams will be too weakened to go on. Cuomo’s hope is to court working class Black and Latino voters along with white moderates and Orthodox Jews. He and Adams share a base. Going against Adams would mean coming to Black churches in Brooklyn and Queens and telling them to abandon the second Black mayor for him. Cuomo might be willing to do this, but it will get much harder if Adams is no longer charged with any crimes. Orthodox Jews, still smarting over Cuomo’s pandemic lockdown measures in 2020, would probably opt for Adams over Cuomo if faced with the choice. Black leaders in the city, including Rev. Al Sharpton, have been cautiously supportive of Adams. To run, Cuomo will have to defy them.

He just might. He wants to be in elected office again and he appears unwilling to run statewide against Gov. Kathy Hochul next year. Ritchie Torres, the Bronx congressman, will be in that primary instead. If Cuomo has foreclosed a gubernatorial bid, mayor is his last shot and he may feel pressure to take it. I have questioned Cuomo’s chances of prevailing in an RCV primary but I don’t want to sell him too short. While past frontrunners in mayoral primaries have scuffled, he could prove the exception. His poll numbers are resilient. His many rivals will have to make concerted, savvy attacks against his record. It’s not clear the sexual harassment scandals matter very much to voters. His failures during the pandemic could resonate more.

Either way, Cuomo’s path grows more complicated if Adams is emboldened and free from prosecution. Adams will giddily bash Cuomo and the other Democrats in the race will focus on the former governor instead of the incumbent because the incumbent is still less of a threat to win. Cuomo will not enjoy fending off Adams and Scott Stringer, Brad Lander, Zellnor Myrie, Zohran Mamdani, and everyone else scrapping in the primary. He wants a glide path to the mayoralty. As long as Adams is there—and as long as he feels any of his old swagger—Cuomo is going to have a bloody race in front of him. He’s never known a primary like that. City politics aren’t for the faint of heart.