Is Eric Adams Going to Lose?

Brad Lander runs for mayor

On Tuesday, Brad Lander, the city comptroller, made official what had been rumored for several months—he is running for mayor against Eric Adams.

Lander is the strongest candidate, thus far, to challenge Adams. His predecessor, Scott Stringer, is also running, and Stringer is formidable too. But Lander, for now, has the edge—as a sitting elected official, and one who doesn’t need a comeback narrative. Zellnor Myrie, a state senator from Brooklyn, is also running, and he has the potential to knit together a large coalition of white progressives and Black voters in central Brooklyn. What he doesn’t have is Stringer or Lander’s name recognition. He might not have their money, either. My old friend, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, could run as well. He’ll hope to unite young leftists and the growing Muslim vote.

Andrew Cuomo, the disgraced former governor, could attempt a comeback. He will, at the very minimum, unsettle this field.

Lander for mayor was a possibility I was keeping my eye on since early 2022, not long after Adams was sworn in as mayor. This was because Lander is ambitious and Adams, already, seemed like he was not going to be the prototypical incumbent coasting to re-election. The prior two mayors, Bill de Blasio and Michael Bloomberg, easily won second terms. At points in their first terms, they looked vulnerable. Bloomberg had forced through an unpopular property tax hike to stabilize the city’s finances after 9/11 and de Blasio had seen his approval ratings tumble as Preet Bharara, the preening U.S. Attorney for the Southern District, investigated him for various alleged quid pro quos. But Bloomberg recovered—his tens of millions helped, as did his knack for governing—and no indictments came from Bharara’s probes. Adams now faces down his own federal investigation from the Southern District, and he can hope the probes into his fundraising and ties to the Turkish government go the way of de Blasio’s.

Lander is betting they won’t. And the truth is, it may not matter either way—Adams is that unpopular. There is a strong chance that Adams won’t have a second term.