It's Micah Lasher's Race to Lose
A few thoughts on the primary for the most prestigious House district in America
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The 12th Congressional District of Manhattan, in its current form, has only existed since 2023. The product of a byzantine and deeply confusing redistricting season—an independent mapmaker, rather than the state legislature, brought the district into being—the seat is now open because Jerry Nadler is retiring. There’s been much written about the race already, and there’s a good chance you’ve read that coverage. For many decades, the East and West Sides of Manhattan sat in separate congressional districts. Now they’re united in the densest, richest, and most prestigious seat there is. Gramercy Park, Chelsea, Times Square, Central Park, the Met, MoMA, and the Museum of Natural History all sit within the district, as does the world’s millionaire and billionaire classes. The Democratic primary, set for the end of next month, will determine Nadler’s successor because the district is overwhelmingly Democratic. There are four viable contenders: Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway. The winner might hold the seat for the next thirty years.
And only two Democrats, really, are in the hunt. Schlossberg, the social media influencer who is the grandson of John F. Kennedy, gobbled up much of the oxygen in late 2025 and early 2026. Various internal polls seemed to show him at the top of the heap. I was always a bit skeptical of them because Schlossberg’s roots in the district are shallow and Kennedy nostalgia is fading. A New York Times story would confirm what political observers long suspected: Schlossberg’s campaign is shambolic, and he doesn’t seem to be taking the race all that seriously. Though he’s literal political royalty, he’s positioned himself as something of a populist outsider, if it’s difficult to know how hard he’s thought about this campaign at all. Zohran Mamdani was attacked last year as a dilettante with a thin CV, and though I knew him, in my old political capacity, to be hyper-competent, I could understand why some voters were skeptical of a 33-year-old running for mayor. But Mamdani was a state assemblyman and had spent a decade doing actual political organizing. Schlossberg hasn’t; he is what Mamdani’s critics erroneously said of Mamdani. He’s never had a real job, and he’s a lot less impressive than his forebearers. A recent Emerson College/PIX 11 poll showed him in third, with 11%, and that means, with only a few weeks left, his fate is probably sealed. He will not be a congressman. A highly discerning electorate will look elsewhere.
George Conway, the ex-husband of Kellyanne Conway and liberal hero of the cable TV resistance, sits at 10%. Like Schlossberg, he’s got his ceiling, and he is likely not rising past it.
Two state assemblymen, Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, polled at 22% and 20% respectively. This makes the primary a toss-up. But it also hints at what’s to come: as it was at the start of 2026, it’s Lasher’s race to lose. For a few reasons, he remains the frontrunner, and a Bores victory would still represent an upset.
