Three Paths for the AI Future

Ruminations on what's to come

What to do about artificial intelligence? I’ve established I am bear over a bull when it comes to the technology. I am not convinced the financial model will ever work and I am not lured, so far, by its revolutionary potential. I also worry about what it will do to human beings. Outsource enough critical thinking to a machine and critical thinking itself melts away. I’ve eschewed AI usage—the most I’ve ever done is use it for interview transcripts which I doublecheck against the audio anyway—and I plan to keep it that way. Others, of course, feel very differently. And I’m not someone who believes one can wish AI away. I certainly want to reckon with its implications, whatever they might be.

Broadly, I see three scenarios. The first is a triumph of humanity and the second is the relative defeat of humanity. The third is a blend of the two. By defeat, I do not mean extinction. Until genuine climate catastrophe, a nuclear war, or a new ice age, there will be people on planet Earth. There will be functioning societies. No Matrix-style dystopia awaits. The machines won’t enslave us. To some extent, we’ll always have autonomy.

Each scenario is worth pondering. Since I’m an optimist, I’ll begin with the tale of triumph. It’s one I hope for. I do not know if it will come to pass. What I do think is that there’s a possibility, given the political dynamics. AI evangelists should be worried about the American electorate. Technocracy hasn’t yet won out. Voters and their opinions, often inconvenient for wealthy elites, still do matter. How long they’ll matter, of course, is anyone’s guess. I tend to have a cockeyed belief in the American republic, but what do I know? We’ll find out soon enough if I’m right.

Let’s get into the three scenarios. There’s plenty of promise—and peril—ahead.