Was the Race to Replace George Santos a Bellwether?

I'm skeptical

Last night, in the most closely-watched election of the year so far, Democrat Tom Suozzi won the race to replace the indicted and expelled George Santos. Suozzi won comfortably, beating the Republican candidate, Mazi Pilip, by eight points. The House race was forecasted to be much closer than it ended up being, with a snowstorm depressing turnout on Election Day. Suozzi banked a lead in early voting that he never relinquished. Republicans are regretting that Donald Trump scared so many of their voters away from casting their ballots before the actual election. Suozzi’s win did not surprise me, though the margin was larger than I would have been comfortable predicting.

Suozzi’s victory has led to the slinging of numerous takes (usually five apiece) about what this means for Joe Biden, the Democratic Party, the House of Representatives, and messaging around crime and immigration. All of this analysis is reasonable enough and some of it might, in retrospect, look fine.

The problem is that there’s not much one special election in February can tell you about anything, particularly when there was such a candidate mismatch. Here’s what Suozzi’s victory over Pilip really means.

And no, no “tests” were passed.