Who Is Going to be the Next Mayor of New York?
The field takes shape
It is unlikely that Mayor Eric Adams is going to be re-elected. No incumbent mayor has lost a re-election bid in the five boroughs since 1993, but Adams seems destined, barring unforeseen circumstances, to be out of City Hall in 2026. He is historically unpopular and has not led the Democratic field in any recent polls. A federal corruption indictment, since scuttled by the Trump Justice Department, greatly damaged him, but he already carried dismal approval ratings almost a full year before the indictment arrived. New Yorkers are largely sick of the chaos and corruption emanating out of the Adams administration. His act has worn thin. Like London Breed in San Francisco, he is probably going to be a one-term mayor.
Who is going to replace him? As of now, there are five viable likely candidates—all Democrats—who stand a chance. There are at least two other Democrats who could enter the primary and do well—both happen to be women—but they are, as of today, long-shots to run. (An additional woman has been bandied about as a contender, but she lacks name recognition to compete with the field that’s already in place.) No serious Republicans have emerged. An attorney named Jim Walden is running as an independent but he is not rich or well-known enough to beat an actual Democrat.
The five candidates include four Democrats who have qualified for multiple millions in public matching funds—Zellnor Myrie, Zohran Mamdani, Brad Lander, Scott Stringer—as well as Andrew Cuomo, the former governor who resigned in disgrace and has been plotting a comeback for many months. Cuomo seems to move closer to a campaign each day. Every poll over the last few months has shown him with a comfortable lead.
At first, Cuomo seemed reluctant to run against Adams. Now, even with Adams in the race and defiantly holding on, he isn’t so intimidated. He is a cutthroat political operator and knows how to sniff out weakness. Most New Yorkers who follow this stuff ask me a straightforward question—can anyone beat Cuomo? The answer isn’t so straightforward.