Zohran Mamdani's Major Political Tests
Two candidates who really need to win for him
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There are now to two congressional insurgents in New York City who have endorsements from the Democratic Socialists of America and Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The first, Claire Valdez, is a state assemblywoman running against Antonio Reynoso, the Brooklyn Borough President. I’ve written pretty extensively on this primary and the fundamentals haven’t change all that much. In another era, Reynoso would be the vaunted frontrunner: he has the endorsements of major labor unions, the Working Families Party, and the outgoing popular congresswoman, Nydia Velázquez. He holds a higher office, and he’s been in politics far longer. Unlike Valdez, he grew up in the Brooklyn and Queens district.
Despite all that, he isn’t in the lead because of the rise of Mamdani and DSA: both are extremely potent in the district, which runs through neighborhoods like Bushwick and Ridgewood, and they could be enough to drag Valdez over the finish line.
The consensus, among the political observers I’ve chatted with, is that Reynoso has been the more impressive candidate. It’s not just that Valdez was only elected in 2024 and Reynoso has been active in Brooklyn politics since the 2000s. It’s that Reynoso has emerged as the more energetic campaigner, running like he’s behind, and he was even able to outflank Valdez when ICE showed up at a Bushwick hospital and the community furiously protested. While Reynoso immediately staged a rally and seemed wholly available to the media, Valdez appeared caught between challenging ICE and NYPD coordination and running afoul of her endorser, Mamdani, who controls the NYPD. Reynoso, too, turned in a better performance in their TV debate on NY1. Again, I do not think this will be enough for him to win, and Mamdani and DSA’s combined might will probably get Valdez to Congress. If you want a politician who will automatically join the Squad and be unapologetically pro-Palestine, Valdez is the choice. But this has not been the most sizzling campaign.
The second DSA challenger Mamdani, my old campaign manager, has now endorsed is Darializa Avila Chevalier, a political organizer and doctoral candidate running against Congressman Adriano Espaillat in upper Manhattan and the Bronx. Not long ago, I suggested it would be beneficial for Mamdani to back Avila Chevalier because she’s an insurgent worth taking a risk on. Even if she loses, DSA builds power in upper Manhattan, where Mamdani performed very well last year. And I am not sure, anymore, Espaillat is much of a favorite, even as Avila Chevalier’s old controversial tweets resurface. There are a lot of younger, college-educated newcomers and left-leaning Latinos who could break in her direction, especially around the issue of Israel. Espaillat, despite belonging to the Progressive Caucus, has been an Israel hawk, taking many thousands from AIPAC and refusing to stand up for Mahmoud Khalil, the pro-Palestine Columbia activist the Trump administration has been trying to deport. Espaillat is four decades older than Avila Chevalier, and the dynamic of the primary is reminiscent of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vs. Joe Crowley. Espaillat, at least, is taking the race far more seriously than Crowley, and has a long history of political organizing in the district. He has a Dominican American political machine that will be put to the test on June 23rd.
For Mamdani, much is on the line. There are risks inherent in supporting Valdez and Avila Chevalier. It’s also notable, in his decision to back certain insurgents, Mamdani has passed on supporting DSA challengers to incumbent members of the State Assembly, where he is trying to maintain a strong relationship with the Assembly speaker, Carl Heastie.
Either way, for a variety of reasons, it will be a fascinating summer for the new mayor. What he’s already learned is that it’s impossible to make everyone happy—and that concessions to the establishment forces he ran against only get him so far. This has been evident in the complaints about his decision to go against Espaillat, apparently breaking a promise he had made last year.
Why does this matter?
