58 Comments

Another excellent analysis. This is not the end. The results of the election, and the inevitable ghoulishness of another Trump term, provide pathways for resurgence. But we must first purge the Democratic Party of the people who have failed us for several decades now, and revamp the party to have a broad appeal that goes beyond cities, suburbs, and college towns. The highly educated liberal suburbanites cannot be the driver of a party that wants to lift the economic fortunes of the masses. We have two years to organize and build up new leaders, who are closer to the people of their communities. We can set the tone next year with the NYC mayor's race.

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I started to say it looks obvious, in hindsight. And it does. Then I remembered it looked obvious, at the time, that simply anointing Harris was pretty undemocratic. And saying "plus, she's raised a lot of money" wasn't really a great look, either. Nice job.

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Kamala Harris hardly put one step wrong. People were happy to see her. America was fun again for just a couple of months. She probably won the election except for Russian interference.

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Lmao! Some folks really live in an alternate reality. She was a TERRIBLE candidate.

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Agreed 100% about how Democrats doing better than expected in 2022 was a major inflection point. A party's first midterm election in power usually forces a course correction, but there was no real moderation in 2023/2024.

Also, while abortion undoubtedly helped Dem turnout in 2022, it probably had less impact last night, when turnout was already going to be high (most Americans vote in presidential elections, which isn't true of midterms). Dems may have learned the wrong lesson from 2022 and made abortion too central of an issue this year, compared to, say, fighting inflation.

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As someone who lives in a MAGA stronghold I knew her candidacy would never work unless Dems remade their messaging and comms and didn’t rely on the Obama playbook. But they had a short season and not enough time or processes through which all that could come out and strategy changes made. For me, based on where I live, I think the depth and scope of why “normal” people would vote for Trump or GOP is under-understood. We have to create more portraiture of what niches in the U.S. are actually like now—not what lump characterizations see “the U.S.” as.

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I would say we lost 2024 the day Obama picked up the phone right before Super Tuesday and hustled all the 2020 undercard except Warren out of the race, to stop Sanders, who would certainly otherwise have been reelected yesterday. For 4 years or longer the top Dem priority has been protecting private insurance and Israel, and last night we saw the consequences.

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Do you truly believe that? Would Sanders have won Arizona and Georgia, two historically GOP states, in 2020? And why would Sanders not be brought down in 2024 by inflation? It's true that Sanders is the better politician than Biden/Harris, but he likely would not have defied political gravity and won two terms.

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Shocking to me that this is your takeaway. A clear majority of Americans just said that the Democrat message does not resonate with them. You can choose to look in the mirror, or find someone to Blame (Biden). As someone who wants a healthy American body politic I really hope for the former, however painful it is.

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I feel like a clear majority of Americans said "it's the economy, stupid," not that the Democrat message doesn't resonate with them. Many people vote with their pocketbooks first and foremost. To me, that is the most plausible explanation for swing voters/independents in the first place. People with core party values are generally party loyalists and always vote their party re: of economy. If in four years people are unhappy with the economy, the swing voters will punish the party in charge and vote Dems back in. That won't be a repudiation of the GOP message either.

I agree Biden screwed Harris and the party and overall think this is an excellent analysis. Dems will, of course, be in a stronger position in 2026/2028 when they are not the incumbents taking heat for everything that is wrong. I think Dems should focus their messages/policy on economic proposals over next four years. I also think it would be wise to run someone with those bona fides.

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the 2024 election is likely going to be one of the largest drops in voter turnout in history, both by percentage and sheer numbers. Trump will likely keep or slightly underperform his 2020 numbers; in contrast the Dem numbers seem to have collapsed somewhere between 5 and 10 million votes, as far as we can tell at the moment, those dems voters appeared to have simply stayed home and not switched to Trump.

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That's a pretty funny framing. 2020 was the outlier, it was an exceptional election for democrats. Hard to say "crazy that it didn't happen again". Let's look at the numbers:

2004 (Kerry): 59M

2008 (Obama): 69M

2012 (Obama): 66M

2016 (Clinton): 66M

2020 (Biden): 81M !!!!!

2024 (Harris): ~67M

Trump won by about 5M votes (just shy of Obamas record landslide), and Democrats roughly reverted to norms, to me that sounds like Americans are loudly repudiating the Democrat agenda. The economy (GDP growth is a TERRIBLE indicator for the average worker). The border. The progressive agenda. The blatant unchecked antisemitism.

America needs democrats to do soul searching here, not to find the scapegoat.

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Oh for fucks sake already. 2020 has MILLIONS of fake votes. Wake up. Harris got a LOT of fake votes too, just not enough.

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Exactly on point!

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You seriously think there's going to be another general election??!? Maybe midterms with new rules that ensure GOP victories, but, Jeezuz, after last night's election, do you REALLY think it all goes back to politics as usual? Jeezuz! If so, you're part of the problem.

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I agree. Trump has an army of lackeys and an organized patronage machine to staff his administration now. He has more institutional knowledge and a Senate and SCOTUS in his favor. He has a large fanbase who is quite willing to besiege election offices. He’s going to be as disciplined as he is chaotic in undermining Dem victories in 2026.

Not to mention, of course, that many more scholars now than before are saying Trump believes in national rebirth under a militaristic strongman who trades on appeals to racial supremacy and machismo, tradition, law and order, and violence as an ends, plus uneasy but effective collaboration with conservatives and the business class, in order to subordinate the liberal democratic apparatus, the press, unions and immigrants. As much as I agree with the substance of this article (and Ross’ socialist outlook in general), Trump’s fascism is too present to dismiss.

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Ross has a socialist outlook? I’m sorry I don’t read that in his work. He’s a superb political analyst who is able to articulate civic issues with reason and facts.

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It was the impression I got after reading these, but I’m fairly new to his works https://rosselliotbarkan.com/p/what-they-get-wrong-about-dsa https://newrepublic.com/tags/democratic-socialists-of-america

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Lol, your demented paranoia is like delicious chocolate snacks to me. Lol!!! Live in fear, you deranged idiot. Live in fear.

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The problem with this notion, as in the Dem messaging leading up to the election, is that no-one explains how Trump et al would achieve this constitution-busting result even if he wanted to? I’m not suggesting the man doesn’t have an instinct for mayhem, but what exactly do you think is going to take place instead of “politics (in the sense of process) as usual” then?

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The GOP has all three branches of the federal government. Who's going to stop them from doing whatever they want to do? They want to get rid of the Constitution; SCOTUS gave Trump free criminal rein (or reign); the GOP doesn't have to worry about votes in the future since they can change every about term of office, voting rights, election & vote counting/ reporting, what it takes for a bill to pass in Congress, parameters of executive power to rule by executive orders, etc etc etc.

They have the imagination that you apparently lack.

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No need to be rude

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Grow up

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Joe Scarborough and Al Sharpton calling Hispanic men racists and mysogynists the morning after the election was the perfect capstone to a tone deaf, limited, poorly thought out and disconnected Democratic Party campaign (and candidate).

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In my opinion, disinformation is 80% or 90% of what got us here. If people had the facts, and they were sure of them, I think Harris would have won. I wasn't a fan to start with but thought she did a great job. In the past few months I have heard that many regular people believe crazy things which they were somehow coerced into believing.

Some of the disinformation out there—people of all ages really believe this stuff and if you truly believed it, why wouldn’t it turn you away:

-Sam Schwartz said that tons of young people believe Biden ended Roe v Wade

- My daughter’s BF just heard from a MAGA college student in CO that Trump got gay marriage passed.

-People believe that women are having abortions at 9 months and after birth. Ridiculous.

-Laura M said she spoke to people in MI last week who think kids are having sex changes at school.

- Musk or Trump or Russians sent Muslims in Michigan info that Harris backs Israel completely and no care for Gaza at all.

-Musk or Trump or Russians sent people in PA info that Harris is for Hamas.

-Musk or Trump or Russians sent people info that Harris had a DUI that involved killing someone.

- Musk or Trump or Russians sent people info that Walz had abused a child.

-Dems are for open borders and only care only about trans athletes.

- Trump is better on economy (though Trump inherited Obama’s repaired economy and made the deficit skyrocket)

- The Dems are making the hurricanes move to GOP areas.

- There was massive cheating on elections in 2020.

- Trump is the father of IVF

And I am sure we will hear about other crazy alternative facts that were scaring people away from Democrats. My friend in Michigan before the election got terrible stuff in the mail.

This NY Times piece about Elon Musk and all he put into it—the money and the disinformation is just unbelievable. Without Musk, his money, X, and the disinformation campaign, I am sure Harris would have won. And Musk made billions Tuesday night: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/us/elections/trump-musk-america-pac.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

I agree with Brian Williams, from his election coverage show on Amazon Tuesday late night, that RBG and President Biden choosing to stay on too long also set the stage for this. But I don’t agree with people dumping on Harris-Walz saying that it’s their fault. We were fighting lying, cheating monsters, with open Russian interference and unlimited funds. Again, read that piece about Musk, and what we were all up against. I think if Harris had chosen Gov. Josh Shapiro instead of Walz, they would have crucified him on Gaza and made up stories about him too.

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You make a good point, Ross, and I think there should have been a primary, too. Although, what you don't mention is the Democratic corruption of the Primary that saw Hilary Clinton win against Bernie Saunders. If Bernie Saunders had been rightfully nominated as the Democratic candidate maybe there would have been no Trump in the first place, never mind a second one!

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I’d be interested to know how many voters went Democrat down ballot and Trump at the top - I reckon it will have been a decent number - there were one or two straw poll comments I heard suggesting quite common even. Wouldn’t be a bad place for Dem mandarins to start their complete rethink of everything.

Also, remember when there was an populist left in the Dem party that was weirdly shunned and stifled? I’m sure Trump actually manage to hoover up quite a lot of the now-missing Bernie vote the way he ate happily into the Obama vote eight years ago and since.

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If 8 years of Reagan and 8 years of Bush weren’t terminal, would 8 non-consecutive years of Trump be terminal?

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As bad as Bush and Reagan were, they pale in comparison to Trump and co.

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Of course not. These people are mentally unbalanced, emotional children.

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I completely agree with your analysis of what a disaster Biden's hubris was. But I can't agree with your dismissal of liberal fear of despotic Trumpist dictatorship and the collapse of free US elections.

On January 20th, we will have a President who has no effective legal checks on his power, due to the immunity ruling and pro Trump SCOTUS majority; no effective social checks, due to the likelihood that he will surround himself with conscienceless yes-men; and no conscience or impulse control of his own.

Do you disagree with any of that? If so, why? If not, what is that if not fascism? And if, for example, in the 2028 election gangs of Proud Boys roam the streets of our cities tearing down Dem advertising, beating up Dem canvassers, torching drop boxes in Dem neighborhoods, and intimidating Dem voters at the polling places, knowing Trump will pardon them for all of it... who exactly will stop them?

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My guess is the county police would stop them. Cities generally have democratic mayors and sheriffs who will deploy their police forces.

I am extremely disappointed in this result as well and I think many people will find they got what they wanted and they don't quite like it, but I don't believe SCOTUS won't put checks on incursions into SOP or blatantly unconstitutional behavior. We have a conservative SCOTUS that will clearly interpret any unenumerated or vaguely written rights/limits in favor of their party. Which sucks. I do not believe 5 members of this court, and especially Roberts, who is concerned with his legacy, will allow Trump and his sycophants to trample the express provisions of the U.S. Constitution. Roberts was more moderate/less conservative in his rulings when Trump was last in office and I suspect he is an ally when it comes to protecting democratic and constitutional norms.

So less focus on fear and more focus on whipping their asses in 2026 and 2028 like we did in 2018, 2020 and with the exceptions of NY and California, like we did in 2022. Don' let Trumpsters trick you into thinking Dems have a losing message either. This is literally the first election we have lost in 8 years. It's hard to win them all. They finally got one again. Let their hubris go to their heads, meanwhile we will do the work.

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I can agree with some of what has been said here, but it ignores the fact this country is fill of deplorables and people who don't care if the the group/party they belong to is home base to every kind of deplorable imaginable. This country has never been the shining city on the hill. That's fantasy land folks. That's what it is when you have enough money to build that world around you.

I don't believe for a second that another candidate would have turned the tide against Republicans.

We saw Trump the first time around and we voted for him again when he was even worse than the first time. This country is what and who we are, and in this election the party and home to bigots, racists, homophobes, Anti-Semites, religious nuttbaggery, misogynists, anger, fear, paranoia, and uncritical thinking on steroids, won the day bigly. There are those who voted for Trump who claim they aren't any of those deplorable things...but they were willing to stand along side those deplorables and were/are perfectly happy to stand side by side with them. Let's not forget all of the sickeningly wealthy

puppeteers who play on the others worst characters to get even wealthier.

Go ahead Democrats and analyze your backsides off, but you will continue to not see the forest for the trees.

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I guess I'm just skeptical that dem party leaders won't put their thumb on the scale for their preferred candidate(s) in 2028. Which makes me doubt that the strongest contender will actually prevail. Do you think 2020 was fair enough that we should have more faith?

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They’ll simply never win again if they do this. They moan and groan about the electoral college (not that it would have done them much good this time), and have a primary system that all but guarantees their preferred candidate wins unless the momentum makes it “too big to rig” to borrow a MAGA phrase (Obama ‘08 couldn’t be stopped, Bernie ‘16 could).

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