"Known also as the Equal Rights Amendment, the ballot question’s expansive language on gender identity and national origin has attracted furious backlash from Republicans, who believe the new amendment would trigger an enormous wave of biological males playing female high school sports (evidence is scant this would happen) and allow more migrants to settle in New York (the bill language can’t unilaterally change immigration laws)."
Two strawmen.
Re trans, reasonable opponents are not saying it will trigger a wave. But very likely will make it impossible to keep biological males out of women's sports, however many there may be. It will also possibly make it impossible for parents to keep outside parties from performing irreversible medical procedures on their children without their consent. Once these vaguely worded protections are in the state constitution it is an open invitation for judges to get creative.
Re national origin - first of all, it isn't a "bill," it's an amendment to the state constitution. As such it absolutely can change state and city laws unilaterally. It may not "allow more migrants to settle in New York" but it very well could create a legal basis for them to be entitled to every state and local benefit that legal residents are.
I am particularly interested in Ross's takes on the U.S. Senate races. In many election cycles, there is at least one odd Senate upset or result that seems way out of step with expectations. (At times, this is just due to a lack of reliable polling in non-battleground or smaller states). I wonder if Ross or any of his thoughtful readers have any gut feelings about a true Senate upset in the making (for either party).
Florida could be an upset if Harris can get it very close. Scott is genuinely unpopular and can be beaten. The trouble is if Trump wins by 5 or 6 points, there's no Senate victory. I don't think Tester will win but maybe I'm wrong. Ditto Allred - Texas isn't Democratic enough.
Osborn would be a big upset. I would be surprised if he won but stranger things have happened. If so, he offered a roadmap for Left candidates in red states.
I do think that even if the Republicans win the Senate (which I expect), the margins will matter. A 51-49 GOP Senate probably couldn't block too many of Harris' cabinet picks, since it's easy to imagine that Collins, Murkowski, etc. will vote with the Dems on those who aren't seen as extreme liberals. A 55-45 GOP Senate would, on the other hand, though I expect that if Republicans win 55 Senate seats then Trump will have won the presidency as well.
Small quibble, but I don't think a Republican Senate will damage Kamala as much as you think. In particular, I don't think she'll have problems appointing most of the cabinet she wants. Blocking cabinet appointments doesn't really do anything for the Republicans: partly because leaving the Biden folks in place is not a win and partly because the combination of recess appointments and just giving lower level officials additional responsibility means Kamala will still be able to get people to drive her preferred policies forward. So blocking cabinet appointments, with limited exceptions, isn't worth doing.
The Supreme Court is a different story. But even there I would predict that she will be able to fill any vacancies that occur in the first two years (especially if it is Sotomayor's seat that becomes vacant). I don't think Republican Senate incumbents in states that aren't strongly red facing reelection in 2026 are going to want that issue hanging over them. I do think if the Senate is still Red after 2026 that a President Harris will have trouble getting anyone appointed.
I’m a solid liberal, have always voted for democrats and don’t expect to change (despite the party’s flaws). Yet I find Trump utterly despicable and dangerous. Is there something wrong with me? Watching January 6 I didn’t say to myself, This is good, the Republicans have finally changed for the better.
The notion that Trump is “dangerous” when Biden has been marching ever closer towards WW3 with his constant escalations is frankly as ridiculous as it is delusional.
Jan 6 was a demonstration, a very peaceful one compared to “the summer of love”. That’s why all the attempts at trying to portray it as “insurrection” failed. It was a nothing burger and the American people are a lot smarter than the press thinks.
Ooff! Not the most solid of predictions!
Regarding the Crain's article, you write:
"Known also as the Equal Rights Amendment, the ballot question’s expansive language on gender identity and national origin has attracted furious backlash from Republicans, who believe the new amendment would trigger an enormous wave of biological males playing female high school sports (evidence is scant this would happen) and allow more migrants to settle in New York (the bill language can’t unilaterally change immigration laws)."
Two strawmen.
Re trans, reasonable opponents are not saying it will trigger a wave. But very likely will make it impossible to keep biological males out of women's sports, however many there may be. It will also possibly make it impossible for parents to keep outside parties from performing irreversible medical procedures on their children without their consent. Once these vaguely worded protections are in the state constitution it is an open invitation for judges to get creative.
Re national origin - first of all, it isn't a "bill," it's an amendment to the state constitution. As such it absolutely can change state and city laws unilaterally. It may not "allow more migrants to settle in New York" but it very well could create a legal basis for them to be entitled to every state and local benefit that legal residents are.
Nicely done. I found your point #10 particularly interesting!
I am particularly interested in Ross's takes on the U.S. Senate races. In many election cycles, there is at least one odd Senate upset or result that seems way out of step with expectations. (At times, this is just due to a lack of reliable polling in non-battleground or smaller states). I wonder if Ross or any of his thoughtful readers have any gut feelings about a true Senate upset in the making (for either party).
Florida could be an upset if Harris can get it very close. Scott is genuinely unpopular and can be beaten. The trouble is if Trump wins by 5 or 6 points, there's no Senate victory. I don't think Tester will win but maybe I'm wrong. Ditto Allred - Texas isn't Democratic enough.
Osborn would be a big upset. I would be surprised if he won but stranger things have happened. If so, he offered a roadmap for Left candidates in red states.
Nice piece, Ross.
I do think that even if the Republicans win the Senate (which I expect), the margins will matter. A 51-49 GOP Senate probably couldn't block too many of Harris' cabinet picks, since it's easy to imagine that Collins, Murkowski, etc. will vote with the Dems on those who aren't seen as extreme liberals. A 55-45 GOP Senate would, on the other hand, though I expect that if Republicans win 55 Senate seats then Trump will have won the presidency as well.
Small quibble, but I don't think a Republican Senate will damage Kamala as much as you think. In particular, I don't think she'll have problems appointing most of the cabinet she wants. Blocking cabinet appointments doesn't really do anything for the Republicans: partly because leaving the Biden folks in place is not a win and partly because the combination of recess appointments and just giving lower level officials additional responsibility means Kamala will still be able to get people to drive her preferred policies forward. So blocking cabinet appointments, with limited exceptions, isn't worth doing.
The Supreme Court is a different story. But even there I would predict that she will be able to fill any vacancies that occur in the first two years (especially if it is Sotomayor's seat that becomes vacant). I don't think Republican Senate incumbents in states that aren't strongly red facing reelection in 2026 are going to want that issue hanging over them. I do think if the Senate is still Red after 2026 that a President Harris will have trouble getting anyone appointed.
I'm going to post an addendum on some of this
Sigh. Unfortunately moot.
I’m a solid liberal, have always voted for democrats and don’t expect to change (despite the party’s flaws). Yet I find Trump utterly despicable and dangerous. Is there something wrong with me? Watching January 6 I didn’t say to myself, This is good, the Republicans have finally changed for the better.
What am I missing?
The notion that Trump is “dangerous” when Biden has been marching ever closer towards WW3 with his constant escalations is frankly as ridiculous as it is delusional.
Jan 6 was a demonstration, a very peaceful one compared to “the summer of love”. That’s why all the attempts at trying to portray it as “insurrection” failed. It was a nothing burger and the American people are a lot smarter than the press thinks.