This war will proceed cautiously until the Nazis are cornered and all the power plants and pipelines are secured. The first strategic goal was achieved with the complete destruction of Ukraine's air and sea power. It's amusing to hear Zelenskiy demand a no-fly zone. Ukraine has a no-fly zone; it's owned and operated by Russia. The second strategic goal is in sight: cutting Ukraine off from the sea. Number #3: surrounding Ukraine's cities east of the Dnieper River. Number #4: cutting Ukraine in two by driving north and south along both banks of the Dnieper.
Napoleon: 'The army marches on its stomach.'
As for untrained volunteers flooding into the war: great. Thank you for providing a target rich environment. These violent racists won't be killing anyone elsewhere. The lies currently filling their mouths will be replaced by earth and worms. The idea the most corrupt failed nation on Earth could manage a war is laughable. Wars are fought and won based on logistics: on supply, training, and timely movement of troops. Ukrainian defence is designed to protect Swiss bank accounts. The Russian offensive is designed to interrupt all three of these absolutely necessary military acts. Logistics have never more important than recently as weapons are more complex, vastly more expensive, and incredibly destructive. This has slowed research, development, and serial construction to the point wars will now be fought with weapons on hand until exhaustion compels defeat and surrender.
Bertrand Russell: “The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”
Generally, the prime function of Western media is to sow doubt and confusion with so-called experts as done around every political decision: military-police-prison budgets, public health care, climate change, tobacco, unrestrained development and production of lethal chemicals, oligarch control of politics, economy, education and media. Particularly during armed conflict where Western 'journalists' are pimped like cheap whores as 'embedded journalists'.
Anna Wiener, Uncanny Valley: A Memoir: “Certain unflattering truths: I had felt unassailable behind the walls of power. Society was shifting, and I felt safer inside the empire, inside the machine. It was preferable to be on the side that did the watching than the side being watched.”...the side that does the killing rather than the side that gets murdered.
Western 'pundits' still claim Ukraine isn't controlled by Nazis. That Zelenskiy is as Jewish as the Warsaw Ghetto Judenrat doesn't mean Azov, Right Sector and the rest aren't goose-stepping morons. Putin has heard all the promises, watched the treaties signed, and quickly ignored. So it will be blunt demands and brutal facts on the ground that define Ukraine's public surrender.
Thomas Mann (1875 - 1955): "War is a cowardly escape from the problems of peace.” The US and allies have made war worldwide for nothing more substantial than greed and domestic political power.
Joseph Schumpeter: [Ukrainian] “Politicians are like bad horsemen who are so preoccupied with staying in the saddle that they can’t bother about where they’re going."
The wild card in all this is Putin, which makes the hopeful suggestions in this essay doubtful. Ceding Crimea to RU is geopolitically a bad idea, because it give his Navy control of the Black Sea which is surrounded by ex-Soviet satellites like Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia and Ukraine. That would put Turkey in Russia's sphere of influence - a NATO country. Hard to see the West embracing that scenario. Oddly, nobody has offered evidence that Crimeans want to be Russians.
Ukraine agrees to give up Crimea (almost nobody there wants Ukraine) and agrees to referenda in Donbass. Ukraine agrees to demilitarize and forego NATO membership. In return, it receives security guarantees from NATO and/or the US, but without troops, missiles, etc.. Russian troops leave Ukraine.
Mr. Barkan, I admire your position. This is a situation that calls for diplomacy. The West must realize that offering Ukraine NATO membership is not worth destabilizing the entire world. We – the Americans especially - have no idea what we are doing. To paraphrase a scene from Apocalypse now in which Colonel Kurtz describes the horror of war to his future assassin, Captain Willard; Russia would rather cut off its children's arms than give in to Western domination. This is a reality that many armchair war hawks fail to realize. Putin is not bluffing, his resume is long: Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Politkovskaya, Litvinenko, Magnitsky, Nemtsov, Sergei and Yulia Skripal, and most recently, Navalny.
In light of this history, Zelensky is indeed making a reckless request to have NATO intervene militarily. Economic sanctions are not much better. In many instances, sanctions only further alienate the target and encourage the development of a shadow economy that will make matters worse in the long run. Diplomacy is the only way out of this mess.
We’re not “integrating Russia into the West” and Russia is not moving towards “democracy,” and Putin has clear goals.
Putin and Biden have to be able to claim victory and the NATO nations feel safe, or safer.
The longer the war, let’s call it what it is, goes on the more dangerous it becomes, and, no, we don’t want Putin assassinated, chaos in a nation with 9,000 nukes is scary.
Who is the “broker” who can foster an endgame?
Macron tried, w/o apparent success, Turkey? Maybe Angela Merkel can come out of retirement?
Putin has been planning the war for a long time with clear goals, and, we were preparing the sanctions.
For Biden, how do you define victory and how will it impact the midterms? For Putin, has respect and fear of Russia in the West grown?
This is not a zero sum game, there will be no winners or losers, what is an acceptable midpoint?
This war will proceed cautiously until the Nazis are cornered and all the power plants and pipelines are secured. The first strategic goal was achieved with the complete destruction of Ukraine's air and sea power. It's amusing to hear Zelenskiy demand a no-fly zone. Ukraine has a no-fly zone; it's owned and operated by Russia. The second strategic goal is in sight: cutting Ukraine off from the sea. Number #3: surrounding Ukraine's cities east of the Dnieper River. Number #4: cutting Ukraine in two by driving north and south along both banks of the Dnieper.
Napoleon: 'The army marches on its stomach.'
As for untrained volunteers flooding into the war: great. Thank you for providing a target rich environment. These violent racists won't be killing anyone elsewhere. The lies currently filling their mouths will be replaced by earth and worms. The idea the most corrupt failed nation on Earth could manage a war is laughable. Wars are fought and won based on logistics: on supply, training, and timely movement of troops. Ukrainian defence is designed to protect Swiss bank accounts. The Russian offensive is designed to interrupt all three of these absolutely necessary military acts. Logistics have never more important than recently as weapons are more complex, vastly more expensive, and incredibly destructive. This has slowed research, development, and serial construction to the point wars will now be fought with weapons on hand until exhaustion compels defeat and surrender.
Bertrand Russell: “The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”
Generally, the prime function of Western media is to sow doubt and confusion with so-called experts as done around every political decision: military-police-prison budgets, public health care, climate change, tobacco, unrestrained development and production of lethal chemicals, oligarch control of politics, economy, education and media. Particularly during armed conflict where Western 'journalists' are pimped like cheap whores as 'embedded journalists'.
Anna Wiener, Uncanny Valley: A Memoir: “Certain unflattering truths: I had felt unassailable behind the walls of power. Society was shifting, and I felt safer inside the empire, inside the machine. It was preferable to be on the side that did the watching than the side being watched.”...the side that does the killing rather than the side that gets murdered.
Western 'pundits' still claim Ukraine isn't controlled by Nazis. That Zelenskiy is as Jewish as the Warsaw Ghetto Judenrat doesn't mean Azov, Right Sector and the rest aren't goose-stepping morons. Putin has heard all the promises, watched the treaties signed, and quickly ignored. So it will be blunt demands and brutal facts on the ground that define Ukraine's public surrender.
Thomas Mann (1875 - 1955): "War is a cowardly escape from the problems of peace.” The US and allies have made war worldwide for nothing more substantial than greed and domestic political power.
Joseph Schumpeter: [Ukrainian] “Politicians are like bad horsemen who are so preoccupied with staying in the saddle that they can’t bother about where they’re going."
Nice essay. Approaching the topic from a NYC angle would have been cool as well!
The wild card in all this is Putin, which makes the hopeful suggestions in this essay doubtful. Ceding Crimea to RU is geopolitically a bad idea, because it give his Navy control of the Black Sea which is surrounded by ex-Soviet satellites like Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia and Ukraine. That would put Turkey in Russia's sphere of influence - a NATO country. Hard to see the West embracing that scenario. Oddly, nobody has offered evidence that Crimeans want to be Russians.
My take is as follows.
Ukraine agrees to give up Crimea (almost nobody there wants Ukraine) and agrees to referenda in Donbass. Ukraine agrees to demilitarize and forego NATO membership. In return, it receives security guarantees from NATO and/or the US, but without troops, missiles, etc.. Russian troops leave Ukraine.
Everybody can declare victory.
Mr. Barkan, I admire your position. This is a situation that calls for diplomacy. The West must realize that offering Ukraine NATO membership is not worth destabilizing the entire world. We – the Americans especially - have no idea what we are doing. To paraphrase a scene from Apocalypse now in which Colonel Kurtz describes the horror of war to his future assassin, Captain Willard; Russia would rather cut off its children's arms than give in to Western domination. This is a reality that many armchair war hawks fail to realize. Putin is not bluffing, his resume is long: Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Politkovskaya, Litvinenko, Magnitsky, Nemtsov, Sergei and Yulia Skripal, and most recently, Navalny.
In light of this history, Zelensky is indeed making a reckless request to have NATO intervene militarily. Economic sanctions are not much better. In many instances, sanctions only further alienate the target and encourage the development of a shadow economy that will make matters worse in the long run. Diplomacy is the only way out of this mess.
We’re not “integrating Russia into the West” and Russia is not moving towards “democracy,” and Putin has clear goals.
Putin and Biden have to be able to claim victory and the NATO nations feel safe, or safer.
The longer the war, let’s call it what it is, goes on the more dangerous it becomes, and, no, we don’t want Putin assassinated, chaos in a nation with 9,000 nukes is scary.
Who is the “broker” who can foster an endgame?
Macron tried, w/o apparent success, Turkey? Maybe Angela Merkel can come out of retirement?
Putin has been planning the war for a long time with clear goals, and, we were preparing the sanctions.
For Biden, how do you define victory and how will it impact the midterms? For Putin, has respect and fear of Russia in the West grown?
This is not a zero sum game, there will be no winners or losers, what is an acceptable midpoint?