I agree that we should do whatever we can to end the war and unnecessary bloodshed, but I disagree with some of your premises. This is not a stalemate, and Russia will continue a steady advance while it degrades Ukraine's military force. Don't confuse the lack of "big arrow" offensives with a lack of progress. Also, the numbers of Russian casualties taken as true in western media are insanely high and not to be trusted
How is Russia even still fighting? Newsweek and others told me multiple times that Russia was 2 weeks away from running out of ammunition. And the Ghost of Kiev was shooting down Russian aircraft - CNN told me that. None of this makes sense!
There has been far too much disinformation and wishful thinking surrounding the "special military operation", and the entire conflict has become invisible now that Israel has ignited. Historically, the Russians rarely lose a war of attrition. They dig in and die in their millions and never calculate the costs. The west would like to think that there is a counter-culture over there of wannabe Americans, but that's a fantasy born from the "American execptionalism" myth. The US is culturally ignorant, complacent and out of its depth most of the time when it comes to foreign affairs; that's why its default position is isolationism. Ukraine never really had a chance to win the war, and now that Zelensky is falling out of favour with his own people this is even more evident. It is not easy to know what can be done about this, as the global appetite for throwing money at the problem is waning day by day.
Thank you for a brave and accurate assessment. This is such a terrible mistake. Billions spent, the country of Ukraine destroyed, millions have been driven from their homes, tens of thousands killed, 40 and 50 year old men being conscripted, young men escaping out of the country...
Let them have more land by the power of war, yes, let's get back to the 19th century. Let's tell China they can use war to take land, and tell everyone that they should get nukes because that will be rewarded with the neighbour's land, if they wish so.
This is a really good comment, but for the fact that it complete ignores the last 10+ years of history and context of the conflict in Ukraine. Also, Taiwan is internationally recognized as part of China, hope that helps
The theory here seems to be that Zelensky will agree to anything the US tells him to. But he's a Ukrainian politician and announcing that the conclusion of the war is that Russia gets a chunk of Ukraine and no security guarantee means he doesn't survive politically.. Meanwhile, Putin sees a US that no longer supports Ukraine, a weakened Zelensky, so he signs whatever and then bides his time briefly before rolling tanks into Kiev. Some plan.
Even if we take your assessment at face value (it's wrong btw), Ukraine has literally zero chance of winning this war or taking back any of the lost territory. You're arguing for continuing to throw good money after bad. Some plan.
It takes two to ceasefire. Where's the indication of Russian interest in a ceasefire that wouldn't be tantamount to Ukraine capitulating or being isolated from outside support (IE another war in several months to a year)?
Very unclear to me how negotiations can work if Russia is unwilling to accept any outcome without Ukraine giving up way more territory than it has already lost. If Russia was willing to negotiate in the context of the current line of control, that would be one thing, but that doesn't seem to be the case at all
That's the problem with these arguments - they don't really treat Russia as a necessary and active participant in this, who can blunt these efforts if it doesn't want to do it.
It's the fact that the US isn't even trying is the problem though. They're just throwing more money at the problem which has proven multiple times to be a bloody waste
The people throwing money at it don't regard it as a problem; to them, it's a windfall. The donor class they serve is making a fortune, and they get to eat the scraps the oligarchs toss them.
I agree that we should do whatever we can to end the war and unnecessary bloodshed, but I disagree with some of your premises. This is not a stalemate, and Russia will continue a steady advance while it degrades Ukraine's military force. Don't confuse the lack of "big arrow" offensives with a lack of progress. Also, the numbers of Russian casualties taken as true in western media are insanely high and not to be trusted
"Will there be an appetite for diplomacy in 2024?"
Not amongst those that make the decisions. The war serves the only thing they care about - money.
The military industrial complex is making a fortune. They donate generously.
How is Russia even still fighting? Newsweek and others told me multiple times that Russia was 2 weeks away from running out of ammunition. And the Ghost of Kiev was shooting down Russian aircraft - CNN told me that. None of this makes sense!
There has been far too much disinformation and wishful thinking surrounding the "special military operation", and the entire conflict has become invisible now that Israel has ignited. Historically, the Russians rarely lose a war of attrition. They dig in and die in their millions and never calculate the costs. The west would like to think that there is a counter-culture over there of wannabe Americans, but that's a fantasy born from the "American execptionalism" myth. The US is culturally ignorant, complacent and out of its depth most of the time when it comes to foreign affairs; that's why its default position is isolationism. Ukraine never really had a chance to win the war, and now that Zelensky is falling out of favour with his own people this is even more evident. It is not easy to know what can be done about this, as the global appetite for throwing money at the problem is waning day by day.
Thank you for a brave and accurate assessment. This is such a terrible mistake. Billions spent, the country of Ukraine destroyed, millions have been driven from their homes, tens of thousands killed, 40 and 50 year old men being conscripted, young men escaping out of the country...
Let them have more land by the power of war, yes, let's get back to the 19th century. Let's tell China they can use war to take land, and tell everyone that they should get nukes because that will be rewarded with the neighbour's land, if they wish so.
This is a really good comment, but for the fact that it complete ignores the last 10+ years of history and context of the conflict in Ukraine. Also, Taiwan is internationally recognized as part of China, hope that helps
The theory here seems to be that Zelensky will agree to anything the US tells him to. But he's a Ukrainian politician and announcing that the conclusion of the war is that Russia gets a chunk of Ukraine and no security guarantee means he doesn't survive politically.. Meanwhile, Putin sees a US that no longer supports Ukraine, a weakened Zelensky, so he signs whatever and then bides his time briefly before rolling tanks into Kiev. Some plan.
Even if we take your assessment at face value (it's wrong btw), Ukraine has literally zero chance of winning this war or taking back any of the lost territory. You're arguing for continuing to throw good money after bad. Some plan.
It takes two to ceasefire. Where's the indication of Russian interest in a ceasefire that wouldn't be tantamount to Ukraine capitulating or being isolated from outside support (IE another war in several months to a year)?
The Pottery Barn rule is in effect in that we own this war
I don’t know what the answer is for American policy but it’s helpful to acknowledge that Ukraine has bled and survived based on American support.
Neither sudden withdrawal nor significant escalation seem appealing
And continued death snd destruction for years seems insane
So something different than those three awful choices seems like it would be the least evil
I agree with Ross that what will emerge will be the lesser of a number of evils
Very unclear to me how negotiations can work if Russia is unwilling to accept any outcome without Ukraine giving up way more territory than it has already lost. If Russia was willing to negotiate in the context of the current line of control, that would be one thing, but that doesn't seem to be the case at all
That's the problem with these arguments - they don't really treat Russia as a necessary and active participant in this, who can blunt these efforts if it doesn't want to do it.
It's the fact that the US isn't even trying is the problem though. They're just throwing more money at the problem which has proven multiple times to be a bloody waste
The people throwing money at it don't regard it as a problem; to them, it's a windfall. The donor class they serve is making a fortune, and they get to eat the scraps the oligarchs toss them.